New ESPN streaming subscribers remained more likely to hold a rival sports service
Likelihood that launch-window ESPN streaming subscribers held at least one named rival service versus comparable streamers; 1.0× = equal likelihood
Likelihood versus comparable streamers
Source: YipitData U.S. e-receipt panel. Launch-window ESPN streaming subscribers n=3,355; comparable streamers n=50,113. Rival subscription capture is a lower bound, and direct ESPN receipts underrepresent bundle acquisitions. Analysis completed August 17, 2026.
Chart data
| Series | Likelihood versus comparable streamers |
|---|---|
| May–July 2026 | 1.55× |
| May–July 2025 | 1.39× |
Did new ESPN streaming subscribers shed rival sports services faster than comparable streamers?
No. Rival-service holding fell from 11.9% to 7.0% among new ESPN streaming subscribers and from 8.5% to 4.5% among comparable streamers between May–July 2025 and May–July 2026. The 4.9-point subscriber decline was close to the comparison group’s 4.0-point decline, while subscribers’ relative likelihood widened from 1.39× to 1.55×. This pattern does not support broad substitution away from rivals after starting ESPN.
Which rival services distinguished the early ESPN streaming cohort?
Before starting ESPN, subscribers were 3.5× as likely as comparable streamers to hold DAZN and 2.7× as likely to hold Fubo, versus 1.2× for Peacock and 1.0× for Paramount+. The DAZN and Fubo estimates are directional because they are based on 75 and 39 subscriber holders, respectively. The comparison covering any named rival is more reliable than the individual DAZN and Fubo estimates.
Assumptions & Methodologies
We identified 3,355 established U.S. e-receipt panelists whose first direct-billed ESPN streaming receipt occurred August 20–September 30, 2025 and 50,113 comparable Netflix streamers without direct ESPN streaming activity. We checked captured Peacock, Paramount+, Fubo, NFL, and DAZN receipts in May–July 2025 and the same months of 2026. Holding rates may be understated because app-store billing may not show direct vendor labels, and direct ESPN capture underrepresents bundle acquisitions. Relative likelihood divides the subscriber share by the comparison share. The observational comparison does not prove starting ESPN changed rival subscriptions.